Emerging Markets UCITS Fund – EUR
Portfolio Attribution
The Fund underperformed the Index in February 2025. We use both bottom-up “stock-specific” and top-down factor categories to seek to forecast alpha for the stocks in the Portfolio’s investable universe. Our bottom-up technical (price momentum), growth, and valuation factors were positive indicators in February. Competitive strength and corporate events were negative indicators. Our top-down country/sector aggregate and macroeconomic factors were positive indicators while currency was neutral.
Quarterly Investment Outlook
In the US, Donald Trump won the presidential election on a platform of higher tariffs and tighter immigration policies and the implications for EM assets are nuanced. Higher tariffs should be negative for EM as it is an export-oriented asset class. However, the incoming Trump administration’s policies may cause higher structural inflation and greater US fiscal deficits, leading to a weaker US dollar in the medium to long-term, which could bolster EM assets. In South Korea, the country’s parliament impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol in December after he attempted to impose martial law. Korea’s parliament then impeached his replacement, Han Duck-soo, two weeks later, replacing him with finance minister Choi Sang-mok as acting president. Despite these near-term political challenges, we remain overweight South Korean stocks in the Portfolio, due in part to compelling valuations. We believe the country’s Value Up initiative will continue as it is supported by both leading political parties in the country. In China, authorities have continued to discuss supporting the country’s economy and markets. The communication from the December politburo meeting indicated moderately accommodative monetary policy and emphasized the need to stabilize China’s property market. At its Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC), authorities pledged to increase the budget deficit, issue more debt, and loosen monetary policy to support the economy. We are modestly overweight Chinese stocks in the Portfolio, due in part to attractive valuations.