Emerging Markets UCITS Fund – EUR

Portfolio Attribution

The Fund underperformed the Index in July 2024. We use both bottom-up “stock-specific” and top-down factor categories to seek to forecast alpha for the stocks in the Portfolio’s investable universe. Our growth and technical (price momentum) factors were negative indicators in July. Our corporate events, competitive strength, and valuation factors were positive indicators. Our top-down macroeconomic and country/sector aggregate factors were negative while our currency factor was a positive indicator.

Quarterly Investment Outlook

The Indian general election concluded in June with the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata party (“BJP”) losing its standalone majority in the lower house. However, the party retained a majority as part of the National Democratic Alliance. While this result initially disappointed the market, Indian stocks rebounded as the BJP indicated that it would remain committed to investing in infrastructure and instituting reforms. Moreover, Prime Minister Modi’s cabinet appointments were largely holdovers from his last cabinet, allaying concerns that the alliance partners were exerting significant influence over these appointments. We remain confident in our India exposure due to valuation support-the portfolio’s Indian stocks currently trade at significant price-to-earnings discounts versus the MSCI India Index. In South Africa, elections appear to be progressing in a business-friendly manner. The African National Congress formed a government of national unity with center-leaning parties. While we believe the new government is well-positioned to address the country’s economic challenges – low growth, fiscal deficits, and poor infrastructure – it remains to be seen if the leaders will be able to implement effective policies in these areas. South Africa was the largest country underweight in the Portfolio as of quarter-end due to valuation and top-down considerations. We continue to monitor South Africa’s economic environment.

After appearing less attractive for much of 2023, earnings growth upgrades for EM equities are currently more attractive than those in ex-US developed markets. Within EM, growth upgrades appear attractive in Taiwan and South Korea. In contrast, the growth outlook for Mexican and Brazilian stocks has slumped. Economic growth rates in these countries have been falling and the US Federal Reserve’s hawkishness has prevented them from more aggressively lowering their domestic interest rates to spur growth. Within EM more broadly, we continue to identify, in our view, attractive investment opportunities in small cap companies. Historically, our investment process has uncovered EM small cap stocks with alpha potential. The Portfolio’s allocation to small cap stocks remains near the high end of the historical range.

Emerging Markets UCITS Fund

Portfolio Attribution

The Causeway Emerging Markets UCITS Fund (“Fund”) performed in-line with the Index in April 2022. We use both bottom-up “stock-specific” and top-down factor categories to seek to forecast alpha for the stocks in the Fund’s investable universe. Our bottom-up valuation and price momentum factors were positive indicators during the month while growth and competitive strength were negative. Of our top-down factors, our macroeconomic and currency factors were positive. Our country and sector factors were negative indicators in April.

Investment Outlook

Earnings growth upgrades for EM equities continue to lag those in developed markets. EM sectors with the weakest earnings upgrades were communication services, consumer discretionary, and real estate. All three of these sectors are dominated by Chinese stocks, which were impacted by the Covid-19 lockdowns. The sectors with the strongest earnings upgrades were energy, information technology, and financials. Energy benefitted from strong oil prices and information technology benefitted from positive revisions for a few larger capitalization stocks. Financials benefitted from rising interest rates. The countries with the weakest net upgrades include China, India, and Thailand. While Covid-19 containment policies have weighed on Chinese stocks, rising commodity prices have dampened the growth outlook for Indian equities. The countries with the strongest net upgrades include Taiwan, Turkey, and Mexico. Positive revisions for larger capitalization companies drove strength in Taiwan. We are overweight Taiwanese stocks in the Fund due to attractive bottom-up and top-down characteristics. Mexican stocks have benefitted from economic linkages with the US. While we incorporate growth expectations into our multi-factor investment process, we continue to emphasize valuation in our approach. With a balance of favorable valuation, growth, and price momentum characteristics relative to the Index, we believe the portfolio provides outperformance potential looking forward.