Global Small Cap

Portfolio attribution

The Portfolio outperformed the Index during the month. To evaluate stocks in our investable universe, our multi-factor quantitative model employs four bottom-up factor categories – valuation, earnings growth, technical indicators, and competitive strength – and two top-down factor categories assessing macroeconomic and country aggregate characteristics. All of our alpha factor categories delivered positive returns in October. The strategy’s value factors produced positive returns in October, and value remains the best-performing factor in 2023 and over the last twelve months. Our earnings growth and technical factors also posted positive returns last month. Competitive strength generated the highest returns among our bottom-up alpha factor categories in October, and it is the second-best performing factor group over the year-to-date period. Our macroeconomic and country aggregate factors delivered positive monthly returns as countries exhibiting stronger metrics (such as Japan) outperformed those with relatively weaker characteristics (such as Australia). All factor groups remain positive on an inception-to-date basis.

Economic outlook

Excluding Australia, major Developed Market central banks, including the US Federal Reserve Bank, The Bank of England, The European Central Bank and The Bank of Japan, voted to leave rates unchanged at their most recent meetings. The global manufacturing output PMI slipped 0.9 points to 48.9 last month, a level consistent with a 0.5% annual rate contraction in factory output. The standout positive in the October PMIs was the US, with a rise in both the output (+0.5 points) and new orders (+1.4 points) indexes. However, China stepped down, and the Euro area PMI remains stuck at a recessionary level.

According to JP Morgan, mainland China’s global PMI slipped to 48.8 likely reflecting the ongoing drags from the real estate sector and domestic demand weakness and raising questions about the resilience of the end-of-third quarter momentum.

Investment outlook

Though we analyze many different stock selection factors in our alpha model, value factors receive the largest weight on average. As of the end of October, the MSCI ACWI ex USA Small Cap Growth Index traded at a 15.7x forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple compared to 9.6x for the MSCI ACWI ex USA Small Cap Value Index, a 63% premium, which is the smallest it has been all year.

Another attractive feature of global small caps is that they exhibit greater valuation dispersion than large caps on both a forward earnings yield and B/P basis. This indicates more information content in the valuation ratios of small caps. In addition to exhibiting greater valuation dispersion, small caps exhibit a higher long-term earnings per share growth trend.

International Small Cap

Portfolio Attribution

The Portfolio outperformed the Index during the month. To evaluate stocks in our investable universe, our multi-factor quantitative model employs five bottom-up factor categories – valuation, sentiment, technical indicators, quality, and corporate events – and two top-down factor categories assessing macroeconomic and country aggregate characteristics. All alpha factor categories delivered positive returns in February. Our technical factors were the best-performing bottom-up factor group last month, while the strategy’s value factors have posted the highest factor returns over the last twelve months. Returns to our macroeconomic and country aggregate factors were also positive in February as countries exhibiting more attractive characteristics (such as Taiwan) outperformed those with relatively weaker characteristics (such as India). All factor groups remain positive on an inception to date basis.

Quarterly Investment Outlook

The US Federal Reserve reduced its benchmark interest rate by another 0.25% in December, but its forward guidance was interpreted as more hawkish than expected. Nevertheless, inflation in the US is still trending down, with November Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation at just +0.1% month-over-month. This trajectory could change depending on the policies of the Trump administration; however more accommodative central bank policy in the US, and the potential for a weaker US dollar, should be tailwinds for international small caps.

Chinese authorities have continued to talk up supporting their economy and markets in recent months; however specific fiscal stimulus efforts remain unclear. We expect plans to become more crystallized as the Trump tariff negotiations proceed. Although China is approximately 3% of the ACWI ex USA Small Cap Index, additional monetary and fiscal stimulus should be supportive of global economic growth.

International small caps (ACWI ex USA Small Cap Index) derive, on average, 66% of their revenue from their domestic/home market compared to larger peers (MSCI ACWI ex USA Index) at 48%, which helps provide better insulation to rising tariffs and barriers to trade.

International small caps (ACWI ex USA Small Cap Index) continue to trade at a rare discount to their larger-cap (ACWI ex USA Index) peers on a forward P/E basis. In addition to the attractive relative valuation of the asset class overall, Causeway’s International Small Cap portfolio continues to trade at a substantial discount to the Index while simultaneously exhibiting more favorable growth, quality, momentum, and positive estimate revisions than the Index. We believe that this highly attractive combination of characteristics better insulates our portfolio from future volatility.

International Value Select

Portfolio Attribution

The Portfolio outperformed the Index during the month, due primarily to stock selection. Portfolio holdings in the semiconductors & semi equipment, capital goods, and materials industry groups contributed to relative performance. Holdings in the transportation and consumer services industry groups, along with an overweight position in the household & personal products industry group, offset some of the outperformance compared to the Index. The top contributor to return was jet engine manufacturer, Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc (United Kingdom). Other notable contributors included semiconductor company, Renesas Electronics Corp. (Japan), and rolling stock, signaling, and services provider for the rail industry, Alstom SA (France). The largest detractor was alcoholic beverage distributor, Diageo Plc (United Kingdom). Additional notable detractors included robotics manufacturer, FANUC Corp. (Japan), and healthcare equipment & services provider, Koninklijke Philips NV (Netherlands).

Quarterly Investment Outlook

Deficit spending is widespread, with major economies like the US, Brazil, France, and India leading in deficit-to-GDP ratios. Despite the US having the largest deficit in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the dollar appreciated in 2024, while currencies in other fiscally constrained nations weakened. China’s exports remain strong, driven by investments in new business operations abroad in automotive, clean energy, information technology, and mining, though potential tariffs and slower growth in 2025 may pressure its trading partners in Asia and Africa. While the Federal Reserve monitors tariff-induced inflation, the European Central Bank and Bank of England are likely to continue cutting interest rates to support their economies.

We believe non-US markets, trading at historic valuation discounts to the US, offer significant upside potential in 2025, particularly laggards in the industrials, consumer staples, consumer discretionary, and healthcare sectors. European stocks could see their valuation discount narrow if there is an end to the Ukraine war, a rebound in corporate investments, and lower energy prices. Enterprise adoption of generative AI should drive IT services demand and accelerate growth in advanced processors and memory. Across sectors and geographies, we continue to identify companies focused on operational restructuring, enhancing efficiency, and driving earnings growth to deliver shareholder value in the year ahead.

International Opportunities

Portfolio Attribution

The Portfolio outperformed the Index during the month, due primarily to stock selection. Portfolio holdings in the semiconductors & semi equipment, capital goods, and banks industry groups contributed to relative performance. Holdings in the financial services, consumer discretionary distribution & retail, and transportation industry groups offset some of the outperformance compared to the Index. The top contributor to return was jet engine manufacturer, Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc (United Kingdom). Other notable contributors included semiconductor company, Renesas Electronics Corp. (Japan), and online services company, Tencent Holdings Ltd. (China). The largest detractor was integrated circuit manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (Taiwan). Additional notable detractors included payment service provider, Worldline SA (France), and alcoholic beverage distributor, Diageo Plc (United Kingdom).

Quarterly Investment Outlook

Deficit spending is widespread, with major economies like the US, Brazil, France, and India leading in deficit-to-GDP ratios. Despite the US having the largest deficit in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the dollar appreciated in 2024, while currencies in other fiscally constrained nations weakened. While the Federal Reserve monitors tariff-induced inflation, the European Central Bank and Bank of England are likely to continue cutting interest rates to support their economies.

Within emerging markets, South Korea’s parliament impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol in December after he attempted to impose martial law. Korea’s parliament then impeached his replacement, Han Duck-soo, two weeks later, replacing him with finance minister Choi Sang-mok as acting president. Despite these near-term political challenges, we believe the country’s Value Up initiative will continue as it is supported by both leading political parties in the country. In China, authorities have continued to discuss supporting the country’s economy and markets. The communication from the December politburo meeting indicated moderately accommodative monetary policy and emphasized the need to stabilize China’s property market. At its Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC), authorities pledged to increase the budget deficit, issue more debt, and loosen monetary policy to support the economy. We are modestly overweight Chinese stocks in the Portfolio, due in part to attractive valuations.

We believe non-US markets, trading at historic valuation discounts to the US, offer significant upside potential in 2025, particularly laggards in the industrials, consumer staples, consumer discretionary, and healthcare sectors. European stocks could see their valuation discount narrow if there is an end to the Ukraine war, a rebound in corporate investments, and lower energy prices. Enterprise adoption of generative AI should drive IT services demand and accelerate growth in advanced processors and memory. Across sectors and geographies in the developed markets portion of the Portfolio, we continue to identify companies focused on operational restructuring, enhancing efficiency, and driving earnings growth to deliver shareholder value in the year ahead.

Emerging Markets Equity

Portfolio Attribution

The Portfolio underperformed the Index in February 2025. We use both bottom-up “stock-specific” and top-down factor categories to seek to forecast alpha for the stocks in the Portfolio’s investable universe. Our bottom-up technical (price momentum), growth, and valuation factors were positive indicators in February. Competitive strength and corporate events were negative indicators. Our top-down country/sector aggregate and macroeconomic factors were positive indicators while currency was neutral.

Quarterly Investment Outlook

In the US, Donald Trump won the presidential election on a platform of higher tariffs and tighter immigration policies and the implications for EM assets are nuanced. Higher tariffs should be negative for EM as it is an export-oriented asset class. However, the incoming Trump administration’s policies may cause higher structural inflation and greater US fiscal deficits, leading to a weaker US dollar in the medium to long-term, which could bolster EM assets. In South Korea, the country’s parliament impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol in December after he attempted to impose martial law. Korea’s parliament then impeached his replacement, Han Duck-soo, two weeks later, replacing him with finance minister Choi Sang-mok as acting president. Despite these near-term political challenges, we remain overweight South Korean stocks in the Portfolio, due in part to compelling valuations. We believe the country’s Value Up initiative will continue as it is supported by both leading political parties in the country. In China, authorities have continued to discuss supporting the country’s economy and markets. The communication from the December politburo meeting indicated moderately accommodative monetary policy and emphasized the need to stabilize China’s property market. At its Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC), authorities pledged to increase the budget deficit, issue more debt, and loosen monetary policy to support the economy. We are modestly overweight Chinese stocks in the Portfolio, due in part to attractive valuations.

Global Value Equity

Portfolio Attribution

The Portfolio outperformed the Index during the month, due primarily to stock selection. Portfolio holdings in the semiconductors & semi equipment, capital goods, and software & services industry groups contributed to relative performance. Holdings in the consumer services, health care equipment & services, and pharmaceuticals & biotechnology industry groups offset some of the outperformance compared to the Index. The top contributor to return was jet engine manufacturer, Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc (United Kingdom). Other notable contributors included semiconductor company, Renesas Electronics Corp. (Japan), and online services company, Tencent Holdings Ltd. (China). The largest detractor was technology conglomerate, Alphabet, Inc. (United States). Additional notable detractors included medical devices manufacturing company, Teleflex, Inc. (United States), and airport & rail station concessionaire, SSP Group Plc (United Kingdom).

Quarterly Investment Outlook

Deficit spending is widespread, with major economies like the US, Brazil, France, and India leading in deficit-to-GDP ratios. Despite the US having the largest deficit in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the dollar appreciated in 2024, while currencies in other fiscally constrained nations weakened. China’s exports remain strong, driven by investments in new business operations abroad in automotive, clean energy, information technology, and mining, though potential tariffs and slower growth in 2025 may pressure its trading partners in Asia and Africa. While the Federal Reserve monitors tariff-induced inflation, the European Central Bank and Bank of England are likely to continue cutting interest rates to support their economies.

We believe non-US markets, trading at historic valuation discounts to the US, offer significant upside potential in 2025, particularly laggards in the industrials, consumer staples, consumer discretionary, and healthcare sectors. European stocks could see their valuation discount narrow if there is an end to the Ukraine war, a rebound in corporate investments, and lower energy prices. Enterprise adoption of generative AI should drive IT services demand and accelerate growth in advanced processors and memory. Across sectors and geographies, we continue to identify companies focused on operational restructuring, enhancing efficiency, and driving earnings growth to deliver shareholder value in the year ahead.

International Value Equity

Portfolio Attribution

The Portfolio outperformed the Index during the month, due primarily to stock selection. Portfolio holdings in the semiconductors & semi equipment, capital goods, and materials industry groups contributed to relative performance. Holdings in the financial services, transportation, and consumer discretionary distribution & retail industry groups offset some of the outperformance compared to the Index. The top contributor to return was jet engine manufacturer, Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc (United Kingdom). Other notable contributors included semiconductor company, Renesas Electronics Corp.(Japan), and rolling stock, signaling, and services provider for the rail industry, Alstom SA (France). The largest detractor was payment service provider, Worldline SA (France). Additional notable detractors included alcoholic beverage distributor, Diageo Plc (United Kingdom), and robotics manufacturer, FANUC Corp. (Japan).

Quarterly Investment Outlook

Deficit spending is widespread, with major economies like the US, Brazil, France, and India leading in deficit-to-GDP ratios. Despite the US having the largest deficit in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the dollar appreciated in 2024, while currencies in other fiscally constrained nations weakened. China’s exports remain strong, driven by investments in new business operations abroad in automotive, clean energy, information technology, and mining, though potential tariffs and slower growth in 2025 may pressure its trading partners in Asia and Africa. While the Federal Reserve monitors tariff-induced inflation, the European Central Bank and Bank of England are likely to continue cutting interest rates to support their economies.

We believe non-US markets, trading at historic valuation discounts to the US, offer significant upside potential in 2025, particularly laggards in the industrials, consumer staples, consumer discretionary, and healthcare sectors. European stocks could see their valuation discount narrow if there is an end to the Ukraine war, a rebound in corporate investments, and lower energy prices. Enterprise adoption of generative AI should drive IT services demand and accelerate growth in advanced processors and memory. Across sectors and geographies, we continue to identify companies focused on operational restructuring, enhancing efficiency, and driving earnings growth to deliver shareholder value in the year ahead.